* 1977: The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis (ER 77-10147)
* Sources: CIA: Library: Electronic Reading Room [PDF]; Center for the Study of Intelligence: CIA’s Analysis Of The Soviet Union, 1947-1991: Assessing Soviet Economic Performance.
The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis (ER 77-10147)
1977: March: CIA Intel Memo [PDF]
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* Sources: CIA: Library: Electronic Reading Room [PDF]; Center for the Study of Intelligence: CIA’s Analysis Of The Soviet Union, 1947-1991: Assessing Soviet Economic Performance.
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[…] The Memorandum predicts an impending peak in Soviet oil production “not later than the early 1980s” (the actual peak occurred in 1987 at 12.6 million barrels per day, following a preliminary peak in 1983 of 12.5 Mb/d). “During the next decade,” the unnamed authors of the document conclude, “the USSR may well find itself not only unable to supply oil to Eastern Europe and the West on the present scale, but also having to compete for OPEC oil for its own use.” The Memorandum predicts that the oil peak will have important economic impacts: “When oil production stops growing, and perhaps even before, profound repercussions will be felt on the domestic economy of the USSR and on its international economic relations.” – 1977: March: CIA Intel Memo: The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis (ER 77-10147).
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